Forecasting of Cairo Population using ARMA Model

Kerlos Atia Abdalmalak, Francisco Javier Gonzalez-Serrano

Abstract


The problem of large population is one of the most important factors influencing the economy and social advancement of Egypt. Population forecasts, when carefully and intelligently made, serves a valuable purpose in helping to direct the employment of labor and capital to places or projects where they are most needed. Firstly, the paper focuses on studying the population of the capital of Egypt (Cairo). By large numbers of sampling to the population data sequence, the increasing trend is found. Then, a time series model is given which can accurately forecast the population of Cairo. Multiple Autoregressive models AR (1), AR (2) are used the forecasting of the population in the next twenty years. The parameters of the model are calculated using the famous two methods: Yule-Walker and Burg. Before using the model to make predictions, the test of model response is verified and the MSE and MAPE are measured to verify the models. The result is a scary image of the population in this city. Full descriptions for the steps of selecting the suitable model and comprehensive MATLAB simulation are presented. Secondly, the total population density of Egypt is analyzing and forecasting with using the measured data from 1970 to 2013. The same steps of the first part are done with the population density and forecasting of the increasing of the population density of Egypt in the 20 next years is presented. The main reasons for the population problem are discussed and solution of this problem is presented.

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References


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